After a full weekend to fully digest the Blazers draft day I have deemed myself ready to write a semi-coherent draft analysis for the Blazers. The format is as follows; Blazers pre-draft, my opinion of what the Blazers should have targeted pre-draft, analysis of the trade, and lastly my analysis of the Blazes draft picks.
Pre-draft Blazers “depth chart” (starters in bold)
Point Guards- Andre Miller, Patty Mills, Armon Johnson
Shooting Guards- Wesley Mathews, Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, Elliot Willliams
Small Forwards- Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum, Luke Babbitt
Power Forwards- LaMarcus Aldridge
Centers- Marcus Camby
Free Agents from 2010/2011 Team- Greg Oden (Restricted), Chris Johnson, Earl Barron
Pre-Draft Needs- With the Blazers having the 21st and 51st pick
1. Big Man in particular a Power Forward- The Blazers needing a big man from the above “depth chart” is pretty obvious as entering Thursday’s draft there were only Aldridge and Camby for the big men under contract for the 2011/2012 season. Of course Greg Oden is a restricted free agent whom I would expect the Blazers to resign if the price tag doesn’t get to ridiculous but he has only played 81 games out of a possible 246 games, translation he’s an injury waiting to happen. Also expected back is reserve center Chris Johnson who performed pretty well in limited time last year. Assuming both Oden and Johnson resign with the Blazers that would give them four big men in theory but Oden obviously can’t be counted on due to injury risk and just last year Johnson was toiling away in the D-League. On top of that while Camby is still an above average NBA Center he is basically guaranteed to miss 15 games a season with some sort of injury. Going under the assumption that both Johnson and Oden resign that gives the Blazers a total of four big men, which is a decent number, but out of these four big men only one, Aldridge, is capable of playing the power forward position at a high level. Gerald Wallace played a fair amount of power forward for the Blazers after coming over from Charlotte and had some success but has mentioned that he prefers not to play power forward because of the extra wear and tear he receives going up against bigger players. Wallace versatility to play power forward in the small lineup does ease some concerns over the fact that on paper Aldridge is the only “real” power forward but having only one true player at a position indicates a roster flaw. For the Blazers this meant that when Aldridge came off the court or shifted to center they were almost always giving up size at power forward and at times got destroyed on the glass. This is why all the draft pundits and myself thought the Blazers would be targeting a power forward. No I’m not forgetting that the LaMarcus Aldridge is the Blazers best player and plays power forward but for depth I thought the Blazers had to draft a real power forward, with size and bulk that could play solid defense and rebound well, in other words some that doesn’t shy away from physical contact. Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried was the player that fit this description to a T and as a result many draft pundits and myself thought Faried would be the player the Blazers would target. The other power forwards that were projected to be available in the mid to late first round range were Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson and Georgia’s Trey Thompkins. Johnson doesn’t really fit the description of a “banger”, as he is an extremely skinny power forward, so much so that leading up the draft there was talk that he would have to move to small forward in the NBA due to his lack of bulk. If Faried was off the board Thompkins would be the next power forward that fit the mold of a more physical presence at power forward as he possessed great size, 6’10” 239 pounds, and put up solid numbers during his junior campaign at Georgia with averages of 16.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game.
2. Point Guard of the Future
The other major need that the Blazers needed to address was a future point guard given the fact that Andre Miller was 35 years old and only had one year left on his contract. The other internal options on the Blazers, Patty Mills and Armon Johnson, were average last year but the Blazers would be in serious trouble if either Johnson or Mills were called on to start at this moment. This is not to say that Mills and Johnson don’t have potential, mainly referring to Johnson here, but if the Blazers wanted to seriously contend an upgrade would be needed over what is currently on the roster at point guard. Of course it goes without saying that teams probably shouldn't rely on rookie/sophomore guards to contend for titles but with a 35 year old point guard you have to at least begin thinking about the future at the point
guard position for the Blazers. What also goes without saying is that the
Blazers would like to upgrade their shooting ability at the point guard
position as shooting is something that Andre Miller just doesn't provide.
With that in mind here are the options that were thought to be picked in the
mid to late first round and a brief profile of them. Nolan Smith, obviously
more on him later, a four year star on Duke profiled as more of a combo
guard but showed the ability to lead an offense at a high level from the
point guard spot throughout his four years at Duke. Next is Reggie Jackson the
explosive scorer from Boston College was another viable option although he
came with some serious question marks as he didn't participate in any
workouts throughout the pre-draft process. Lastly there was Norris Cole
from Cleveland State who profiled as more of a true point guard. Cole put
up monster stats this past season but was knocked for the lack of
competition he faced as well as his cold outside shooting in his senior
season. As mentioned above I was strongly in favor of the Blazers drafting
a big man with their first pick but if they went in the point guard
direction I would have gone with Cole because he was regarded as a true
point guard compared to Smith and Jackson who were more regarded for their
scoring capabilities.
3. Shooter
Shooter is a very broad description for a pick but let's face it the Blazers
need help with their perimeter shooting based on last year's results. This
shooter pick would be ideally what the second round pick would be used for
as the Blazers had more glaring holes, big man and point guard, to address
in the first round. Wesley Mathews was the only Blazer starter at the tail
end of last season that scared other teams from the perimeter. For simple
floor spacing purposes this is a problem as we saw in the Dallas series were
the Mavericks packed the paint and dared the Blazers to shoot from the
outside. The pre draft bench options are marginally better with Rudy
Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Patty Mills all boasting respectable
three-point strokes. Respectable might be stretching it in Fernandez's case
as he struggled mightily with his outside stroke to the tune of a three
point shooting percentage of 32.1%. Batum has a good-looking shot but was
pretty streaky during the series en route to shooting a respectable 34.5%
from behind the arc this past season. Backup point guard Patty Mills
compared to Andre Miller might as well be Steve Kerr but really doesn't play
enough to make a serious difference in the outside shooting department. As
you can see not a great arsenal of outside shooters so a second round pick
spent on a shooting specialist would be a smart pick in my eyes. Second
round options that had sweet shooting outside strokes were; Isaiah Thomas,
David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and E'Twaun Moore.
Trade- Blazer grade B-
The biggest move of the draft night turned out to be the three-way trade
between the Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, and Portland Trail-Blazers.
The Blazers sent Andre Miller, the rights to Jordan Hamilton (26th pick),
and a future second round pick to the Nuggets as well as Rudy Fernandez and
the rights to 2007 first round pick Petteri Koponen to Dallas. In return
the Blazers received Raymond Felton from Denver and the rights to the 57th
overall pick from Dallas. A relatively complicated trade that boils down to
the Nuggets and Blazers switching point guards and also the Blazers
jettisoning Fernandez. It was pretty obvious leading up to the draft that
the Blazers were going to deal Miller as they were very active in trade
talks and Miller was the trade bait in all trade discussions. First it was
Tony Parker coming over from the Spurs for Miller and Nicolas Batum, then it
shifted to Jameer Nelson for Andre Miller and other pieces, and lastly it
was Miller and Felton switching places. Out of all the options I think the
Blazers got this one right as I don't think that Parker was worth giving up
Batum and also it's not like Parker brings shooting to the table which is
what Miller was lacking at the point guard spot. Although I think the
Blazers got the right option out of the proposed point guard trades I don't
think this altogether was a great trade for the Blazers. The main selling
point from the Blazers end is that Felton is eight years younger and is
entering the prime of his career compared to Miller who is nearing the end
of his career. This is true and getting younger comparable talents has to
be commended but the financial ramification of this deal has to be looked at as
well. Both Miller and Felton are entering the final year of their contract with Felton entering his prime and already being paid over 7 million per year he could realistically get somewhere in the
neighborhood of 10 million per year on his next contract. That is a
sizeable sum especially for the Blazers who already have long-term
investments in Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Gerald Wallace. Greg
Oden could also factor into this as if he is signed to a long-term contract
it could also be around the 9 to 10 million per year price tag. This
financial aspect presents a serious problem especially when you consider
that the NBA is going to have a new financial set up once they resolve the
issues between the players and owners. Moving on the main reason that the
Blazers acquired Felton is for his work on the court as he put up a career
year last season as he split time between the Nuggets and New York Knicks.
This is a little deceiving as both the Knicks and Nuggets employ fast break,
high tempo offenses which led to Felton putting stats that were above his
career averages. This brings up another important question how will Felton
fit into the Blazers notoriously slow offense? The Blazers do have the
pieces; Aldridge, Wallace, Mathews, Batum, to push the tempo but that is
something that we rarely have seen from the Blazers under Nate MacMillan.
Will Felton be happy playing in a slower offense? You would hope so for
the Blazers sake but as Felton showed last year during his time in New York
with Amare Stoudemire he can form a deadly pick and roll combo in the half
court with athletic power forwards like Aldridge. Besides Felton's pick and
roll ability the other attraction to Felton is that he can and will actually
shoot three pointers which will be a shock to Blazers fans used to seeing
Andre Miller pass up wide open threes. I was a fan of Miller, who never
quite caught on in Portland for whatever reason, but the fact of the matter
was that it was probably time for Miller to move on after two straight first
round post-season exits. Coupled with his progressing age this move made
basketball sense for the Blazers but questions about the fit and financial
concerns prevent this from being a great trade, trade grade B-.
1st Round Pick (21st)- Nolan Smith
Grade- D+
The immediate reaction to this pick was an F but over the weekend I have
warmed to it a little bit but as you can see from the D+ grade I have
serious problems with this pick. Let's get the positives out of the way
first, usually I'm a bad news first kind of guy but the bad news with this
pick goes on forever so positives first. Smith is a proven winner and
performer at an elite level and by all accounts is an outstanding
individual. Before I go on hammering this pick let's be clear Smith does
have plenty of ability, shown in part by his senior stats at Duke with averages of20.6 points and 5.1 assists.
As mentioned before I am not a fan of this pick at all and it basically
boils down to the pre draft needs portion where I stressed the importance of
a big man in particular a backup power forward. The player that I and many
other wanted the Blazers to pick, Kenneth Faried, was still on the board and
was the player that fit the bill as a backup power forward that could bring
a physical presence. Now there appears to be a reason for the Blazers
picking someone other than Smith as there have been indications that the
Blazers and Nuggets trade wouldn't have gone through had the Blazers taken
Faried. That's all fine and dandy but then my question would be why Smith?
Many have questioned if Smith can even play point guard in the NBA, ESPN
even lists Smith as a shooting guard in their pre-draft rankings. Many
other draft experts/sites list Smith as a "combo-guard" not a true point
guard. The Blazers didn't really need a combo guard considering they took
one last year in the first round, Nolan Smith's former teammate Elliot
Williams. Now if the Blazers think Smith is a point guard than it’s up to
them to develop him but there were other point guards that I would have gone
with ahead of Smith. First is Norris Cole who as mentioned previously is a
true point guard, than there's Reggie Jackson who has better size and
outside shooting, then there's Smith that's how my point guard prospect list
would go. Both Cole and Jackson were available and have higher upside than
Smith who must project to be a sixth man at best if he reaches his ceiling.
Granted this is a weak draft but this pick is almost too safe for me. The
Blazers did need a point guard and with a win now mindset Smith probably is
the most NBA ready but with the trade of Felton already nearing completion
at the time of the pick Smith is in my eyes a poor pick at best. The
Blazers already had two backup point guards on the roster who performed ably
last year, Mills and Johnson, and B-Roy post knees could be a point guard in
a pinch, plus last years Elliot Williams pick is a combo guard, so my
question is why Smith? The Blazers glaring need was a big man, Smith at
6'2" 185 is not a big man by any measure. Factor in the Blazers glut of
guards this pick leaves me befuddled. For the record if the Blazers had
drafted Cole or Jackson the grade wouldn't have cracked C-, point guard of
the future was a need but not the glaring need in the wake of the Felton
trade in which Felton is now the point guard of the present and future.
Second Round Pick (51st) Jon Diebler
Draft Grade- C+
This isn't a sexy pick but it does give the Blazers a shooting option off of
the bench. Diebler was one of the elite shooters in college basketball last
season (50.2% from 3 point line) and the Blazers definitely could use
another shooter off of the bench. Besides shooting Diebler doesn't really
provide that much but if he can knock down an open three ball he can be of
at least some use to the Blazers going forward. The Blazers as mentioned in
my rant on the Nolan Smith pick are loaded at guard so Diebler is going to
have some serious work to do to crack the rotation. My main issues with
this pick is that I would have preferred the Blazers to pick a big man with
a physical presence with the second round pick after neglecting to do that
with the first round pick. The options weren't that exciting but this would
be more of an insurance policy in the case of a Camby/Oden injury. Michael
Dunigan was available as was Greg Smith these guys had reasons for not being
drafted but they were big bodies capable of giving the Blazers spot minutes
and providing fouls against the Dwight Howard’s of the world. Another minor
criticism of this pick is that other shooters that were rated higher; David
Lighty and E'twaun Moore, were rated higher than Diebler but it is pretty
hard to argue with a 50.2% shooter from behind the three point line. Bottom
line this was a decent pick but there appeared to be better options on the
board.
