Western Conference Finals Preview

After a month of hard fought playoff action the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the two Western Conference teams vying for entrance to the NBA Finals. This years Western Conference Finals, set to begin today, will be without the Los Angeles Lakers and thankfully Kobe Bryant’s grimace for the first time in three years. The Mavericks and Thunder enter this Western Conference Finals on opposite ends of the spectrum with the Mavericks well rested after completing a shocking four game sweep of the two time defending champion Lakers while the Thunder enter this matchup just two days removed from their seven game series victory over the upstart Memphis Grizzlies. Continuing with the teams on opposite ends of the spectrum theme the Mavericks are the oldest team in the league while the Thunder are the youngest team in the NBA. With all this in mind here are the matchups to keep an eye on and at the end my prediction for who will be representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.

Matchups

Kevin Durant vs. Dirk Nowitzki

Durant and Nowitzki will rarely be guarding each other throughout the series but this series really boils down to whom, Durant or Nowitzki, has a better series. The shocking thing about the Mavericks winning the season series over the Thunder by a count of two games to one is that Nowitzki only played a full game the first time these two teams met. Nowitzki registered 32 points in the Mavericks first matchup against the Thunder, a 111-103 Mavericks victory, before injuring his knee in the second matchup, a 103-93 Mavericks victory, which caused him to miss the final matchup, a 99-95 Thunder victory. Durant on the other hand played in all three matchups averaging 29.3 points on 50.7 percent shooting. So with the regular season matchups between the two basically a wash due to the injuries we have to look at each players body of work so far in the playoffs so far and then look at who will be defending each player throughout the Western Conference Finals. Nowitzki so far in the playoffs has been spectacular, 26.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 49.7 percent shooting, while Durant has been just as good if not better with averages of; 28.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 45.8 percent shooting. Pretty tough to differentiate between the two again so now lets take a look at what each player will face from the opposing team throughout the series. For the Thunder the task of defending Nowitzki will belong to the power forward tandem of Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison who both had their hands full with Zach Randolph in the Memphis series. Both Ibaka and Collison are both above average defenders but it’s hard to see either of them having much success against the matchup nightmare that Nowitzki presents. Ibaka and Collison were both torched at times throughout the Memphis series by Zach Randolph’s midrange face-up game, which doesn’t inspire confidence because Nowitzki is the best in the business at the midrange offensive game with his array of fall-away jump shots. On the other side of the ball the responsibility of guarding Durant will go to Shawn Marion with DeShawn Stevenson or Corey Brewer more than likely guarding Durant if Marion is off the court. Marion is a strong defender but the fact that arguably the strongest wing defender in the NBA right now, Tony Allen, struggled to contain Durant in the Thunder vs. Grizzlies series doesn’t bode well for the Mavericks. To slow down Durant Marion will have to be physical with Durant and stay with him throughout the assortment of screens the Thunder will set in attempts to free Durant up. It is imperative that Marion stays out of foul trouble during this series because while Stevenson is also an above-average defender he doesn’t have the height to consistently bother Durant. In conclusion I would give a slight edge to Nowitzki in this matchup but the fact is that both stars individual matchups foretell a huge series for both Nowitzki and Durant.

Battle at the Point

Stats wise this battle appears to be a landslide in favor of the Thunder’s Russell Westbrook, averages of 23.9 points and 7 assists in the postseason, but the resurgence of Jason Kidd in the playoffs, 10.1 points and 7.2 assists, has played a large role in the Mavericks surprising run. Westbrook has at times drawn national criticism during the Thunder’s playoff run for his shot selection but as he proved with a triple double in Game 7 of the Grizzlies series he is one of the most electric talents in the NBA. Kidd throughout the season had to endure speculation about whether he was reaching the end of his career but a new shooting touch (dubbed the “Nowitzki V”) has ended those talks and has supplied the Mavericks with a much needed outside shooting presence to take pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki. As always Kidd brings a steady presence to the offense and rarely ever makes the wrong decision in Rick Carlisle’s offense. The main question of this matchup is if Kidd will be able to prevent Russell Westbrook’s constant forays into the paint. As mentioned above its tough to imagine Durant getting shut down by the Mavericks so it becomes vital that the Mavericks prevent the Thunders second option, Westbrook, from having big nights. This doesn’t mean that Kidd has to keep Westbrook off the scoreboard completely but rather make him work for those points. In the regular season series Kidd and the Mavericks gave Westbrook the freedom to shoot jump shots, which worked in their favor as the Thunder point guard only shot 31.8 percent from the field. I’m going to give the Thunder and Westbrook the edge although it is easy to see this matchup go the Mavericks way if Westbrook becomes too shot happy in the series.

Controlling the Paint

As has been proven in recent years championship caliber teams always have a dominant presence in the paint, the Mavericks Tyson Chandler and the Thunder’s Kendrick Perkins fit these descriptions to a T. Neither Chandler or Perkins will be asked to do much offensively besides crash the boards instead they will be judged entirely on how well they control their defensive interior. Perkins in the last series was a little underwhelming in this regard because the Grizzlies abused the Thunder with offensive boards but he still performed ably in defending attacks on the rim. For the Mavericks Chandler has brought much needed toughness and a steady interior presence but this matchup will be one of his toughest yet with Durant and Westbrook constantly attacking the rim. Both Perkins and Chandler at times throughout the playoffs have struggled with foul troubles, which presents more problems for the Thunder because the Mavericks have another defensive center in Brendan Haywood that can come off the bench and defend the defensive interior. Based on Chandler’s playoff production so far and the Mavericks depth at center the edge goes to the Mavericks but it is tough to pick against Perkins who has already proven his worth as a defensive presence during the Celtics past NBA Finals appearances.

The Bench

Both of these teams have strong benches that feature what basically amount to de facto starters in the Mavericks Jason Terry and James Harden for the Thunder. The Mavericks bench thus far has been the catalyst for their playoff run because in that they have often dominated opposing bench units behind the efforts of Terry, JJ Barea, and Peja Stojakovic. All three of the aforementioned players play a crucial role for the Mavericks because they are the floor spacers for Nowitzki and the Mavericks. The ability for these three players to hit open three pointers when Nowitzki is doubled will be the difference for the Mavericks in this series. As was shown in game 4 of the Laker vs. Mavericks series, where Terry and Stojakovic were 15 of 16 from long range, they are more than capable of knocking down those open looks. Besides those three shooters the Mavericks also bring Brendan Haywood off the bench to spell Chandler and bang bodies down low. While the Thunder’s bench doesn’t quite pack the same offensive punch as the Mavericks the Thunder have four bench players that play their roles perfectly. Harden as mentioned is basically a starter and is important to the Thunder because he is the third offensive option behind Durant and Westbrook. Besides providing a scoring punch Harden is also an excellent creator for others and can assume ball-handling responsibilities if needed. Back up point guard Eric Maynor is an effective distributor off of the bench and is often called on at times to get the offensive flow back for the Thunder when Westbrook becomes to shot happy. Sharp shooter Daequan Cook has struggled with his shot thus far this postseason, 30.3 percent from three, but if he gets hot is as dangerous as any shooter in the league. As mentioned previously Nick Collison is an above average defender who is also an excellent rebounder off of the bench. Lastly for the Thunder there is Nazr Mohammed who provides another big body off of the bench and is a capable scorer down low. The Mavericks have the bench edge right now due to their phenomenal performance in the Laker series but the Thunder bench is also a capable unit.

Prediction- Thunder in 6

All the signs seem to point to the Mavericks; they are well rested, they won the season series, and they are the more experienced team, but I’m still going to pick the Thunder as the team to represent the Western Conference. I know it defies common sense when I pick the Thunder even though I favored the Mavericks in three of the four important matchups but I actually feel pretty confident that the Thunder will beat the Mavericks, which will undoubtedly lead to another Mark Cuban meltdown. The argument whether it is preferable to be well rested in the playoffs is an age-old argument and there are valid points on both sides but I’ve always believed that it benefits teams that don’t experience these long breaks. The Mavericks are a week and four days removed from their last game, rust will play a part early on in this series. Basically I find it highly unlikely that the Mavericks come out firing on all cylinders while the Thunder are just three days removed, a normal time period between games in the regular season, from their last game in which they played arguably their best game of the postseason. As for the season series I don’t really believe this is a good indicator of what this series will bring because the Thunder are a different team now than they were during their three regular season matchups against the Thunder. The mid-season trade that brought the Thunder Kendrick Perkins in exchange for Jeff Green has improved the Thunder because they now feature a strong interior presence in Perkins. Lastly I have been wary of the Mavericks this entire post season because they don’t have a defined second scoring option to complement Nowitzki, which I view as a serious problem. For the most part the Mavericks have offset this problem with strong shooting performances from their bench unit but I think that the Thunder will do a better job than the Lakers in preventing these second options from contributing. It should be a competitive series but I see the Thunder stealing one of the first two games in Dallas and then protecting their home floor and advancing on in six games.